Trade Data Revisions: A Procurement Planning Control

By Zinit Editorial Team · Procurement research and analysis · Reviewed by Stan Moskovtsev ·

Two offset printed copies of the same chart report with a pink index tab, beside a tabbed binder and a closed archive box on a planning desk.
“A statistic without its release date can become a different number next month. Record the version before you record the decision.”
— Stan Moskovtsev, Co-Founder & U.S. CEO

When do the three MTIS components revise?

In 2025 Census’s annual revisions to wholesale, retail and manufacturing reached the MTIS report one component at a time, between April 16 and June 17, 2025. In 2026 the retail revision reached it on October 15, 2026, and the wholesale revision that Census’s wholesale report published on October 26 follows on November 17, while manufacturing history stays as it is for the rest of 2026. A total-business figure taken from the October 15 release therefore combines a retail series revised in 2026 with wholesale and manufacturing series last revised in 2025.

Zinit Research · Census MTIS notices and releases to Oct. 26, 2026

In 2025 the three components’ revisions reached MTIS within 62 days of each other; in 2026 retail’s came on Oct. 15, wholesale’s is due on Nov. 17, and manufacturing has none

Each dot is the MTIS release that carried a component’s annual revision, as Census’s notices on the MTIS page state it, and the short bar before it starts on the day the component’s own report published the revised history. Every other MTIS release revises only the latest months. Select a row to load it into the check.

RetailersMay 15Oct. 15Last Oct. 15, 2026none announced
Merchant wholesalersApril 16Nov. 17 (due)Next Nov. 17, 2026report out Oct. 26
ManufacturersNone in 2026June 17Last June 17, 2025none in 2026

Which version of an MTIS figure does your plan use?

In that release
1.30
Census now (Oct. 15, 2026)
1.33
Change since
+0.03
Next MTIS date to recheck
Nov. 17, 2026

The release of August 14, 2026 printed 1.30 for total business inventories/sales ratio for June 2026, as a preliminary estimate, and the release of October 15, 2026 prints 1.33, a change of +0.03. In between, MTIS took the retail revision in its release of October 15, 2026. Total business includes merchant wholesalers, and the wholesale revision Census published in its Monthly Wholesale Trade report on October 26, 2026 reaches MTIS in the release of November 17, 2026, so the figure can change again then.

Register entry to keep with the number: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales, total business, inventories/sales ratio (seasonally adjusted), June 2026, preliminary, release of August 14, 2026; wholesale revision due in MTIS November 17, 2026. Values are in current dollars, not adjusted for price changes, and the check covers the releases kept here: each month’s own release and the one after it from November 2025, the release a year later, and the full series printed on January 16, 2025, August 14, 2026 and October 15, 2026.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales page as served on October 26, 2026 and as the Internet Archive captured it on March 26, April 20, June 16 and June 19, 2025; Monthly Wholesale Trade page, October 26, 2026; MTIS release workbooks and time series. Seasonally adjusted, current dollars. Chart: Zinit Research. Data and method

What does the MTIS report combine?

The current MTIS release builds its estimates from three Census surveys: monthly retail trade, monthly wholesale trade, and manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders, known as M3. Its adjusted figures account for seasonal variation and trading-day differences, with holiday variation adjusted for sales only, and none of them are adjusted for price changes; the release also carries unadjusted tables. For a buyer, a rise in a sales or inventory figure can therefore reflect prices as well as physical volume, and the report alone cannot separate the two.

One release can also mix revision states. According to the release notes, wholesale and manufacturing data are carried unrevised from the latest component reports, while retail data are revised and shown in more detail than in the advance indicators report. Its tables label preliminary figures separately from revised ones, and the seasonal factors are applied to the current and previous month and, for retail and wholesale, to estimates a year earlier as well. A combined inventory-to-sales ratio taken from one release can therefore rest on component estimates at different stages of revision, and the label belongs in any record that reuses it.

What one release did to July 2026

The October 15, 2026 release shows the mix at work. Between the September 16 and October 15 releases, total business inventories for July 2026 rose 1.5% and the total inventories-to-sales ratio went from 1.30 to 1.34. Retail accounted for 96.8% of the inventory change, because its annual revision arrived in that release: it lowered retail sales for July by 3.2% and raised retail inventories by 4.9%, which took the retail ratio from 1.27 to 1.38. Merchant wholesalers’ and manufacturers’ July figures moved by 0.24% or less, which is the ordinary revision their own monthly reports had made.

July 2026 in the MTIS releases of Sept. 16, 2026 and Oct. 15, 2026
SeriesSales changeInventories changeInventories/sales ratio
Retailers−3.24%+4.89%1.27 → 1.38
Merchant wholesalers+0.24%+0.10%1.20 → 1.19
Manufacturers−0.03%+0.04%1.47 → 1.47
Total business−0.93%+1.53%1.30 → 1.34

Seasonally adjusted, current dollars. Sales for manufacturers are shipments. Computed by Zinit Research from the two release workbooks.

Why do the component series revise on different dates?

The MTIS revision notice sets out the sequence. Retail revisions for sales and inventories were released on September 28, 2026 and are reflected in the latest report. Wholesale revisions are scheduled for October 26, 2026 and are due to appear in the September 2026 MTIS release planned for November 17, 2026. The notice attributes the revisions to historical corrections and to results from the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey. Until the wholesale release appears, its date is an announcement, not evidence that wholesale history has already changed.

Manufacturing follows a third path. The same notice states that, because of schedule and resource constraints, revised historical M3 data and the M3 seasonal adjustment models will remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. A team comparing manufacturing shipments or inventories with retail or wholesale series this year is setting an M3 history that is held fixed beside retail estimates that have already been revised and wholesale estimates that are scheduled for revision.

Each component also revises on its own routine. For wholesale, the Census methodology says preliminary estimates are published approximately 40 days after the data month and revised approximately 30 days later. Monthly wholesale estimates are benchmarked to annual survey estimates that reflect the latest Economic Census results, and seasonal adjustment uses the X-13 ARIMA-SEATS program. Each step can change a value a planner has already copied into a forecast.

What can change the basis of a series, not just its latest month?

Annual benchmarks and classification changes reach further back. The AIES program page says the Annual Integrated Economic Survey replaced and integrated seven annual business surveys in 2023 and now serves as a benchmark for indicator programs, including retail, M3 and wholesale. The retail methodology records that estimates were restated to the 2017 NAICS beginning with the 2025 benchmark report released on April 25, 2025, and that nonemployers were removed from the time series as of the April 2025 annual revision to align with the AIES.

Sample redesigns can also restate a series. Census says wholesale sample revisions are performed approximately every 5 to 7 years and that, in most cases, estimates from the prior and new samples have been put on a comparable basis. The wholesale sampling frame also excludes manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, so wholesale inventories describe merchant wholesalers rather than every stock position in a supply chain. Recording which sample and classification a value came from is one more reason to keep the release with the number.

How far back each revision reached

Comparing whole MTIS series printed on different dates shows what a revision rewrote. Between the August 14, 2026 and October 15, 2026 releases, retail inventories changed in 129 of the 138 months from January 2015 on, by as much as 5.8% (December 2023), while merchant wholesalers’ changed in three months and manufacturers’ in one, the months an ordinary release revises. The 2025 revisions went further back. Between the January 16, 2025 and August 14, 2026 releases, retail inventories changed in all 395 months back to January 1992, where the series starts, merchant wholesalers’ in 236 months back to February 2005, and manufacturers’ in every month back to January 2012, by as much as 9.4% (January 2023). A ratio saved two years ago and one read today can therefore rest on different benchmarks, which is why the register keeps the release with the number.

Months of adjusted inventories that changed between two MTIS releases, and the earliest one

Retailers129 mo.from Jan 2015
Merchant wholesalers3 mo.from Jul 2025
Manufacturers1 mo.from Jun 2026
Retailers395 mo.from Jan 1992
Merchant wholesalers236 mo.from Feb 2005
Manufacturers155 mo.from Jan 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, MTIS adjusted time series as published on October 15, 2026 and as the Internet Archive captured it after the releases of August 14, 2026 and January 16, 2025. Each bar runs from the earliest changed month to the last month both releases print. Computed by Zinit Research from the three files. Chart: Zinit Research. Data and method

What should a procurement data-use register record?

The control is simple: never store a Census value without the version that produced it. The register below is our method for doing that. It records enough to rerun a decision when a later release changes the input, and it keeps announced revisions separate from observed ones.

Data-use register for Census manufacturing and trade inputs
Register fieldWhat to recordWhy it matters
Series and componentProgram (MTIS total, retail, wholesale or M3), industry line and unitComponents revise on different schedules
Release vintageRelease name, publication date and retrieval dateThe same month can carry different values in later releases
Value as usedThe exact figure copied, with a saved copy or extract of the releaseA release URL may not identify a vintage on its own
Observation periodThe data month or year the value describesKeeps release dates and reference periods apart
Revision statusAdvance, preliminary, revised or benchmarked, using the release’s own labelSeparates first estimates from later ones
Adjustment basisSeasonally adjusted or not, and whether values are in current dollarsAdjusted history moves as seasonal factors update; current dollars mix price and volume
Announced changesScheduled revision dates and frozen models, marked as announcedAn announcement is not evidence of a changed value
Decision bound to itThe forecast, buffer setting, index clause or category plan that used the value, and the change that would alter itShows which decisions to revisit and when a revision matters
Refresh owner and dateWho rechecks the value, and when, keyed to the Census release calendarMakes the next review deliberate

An authored control, not a Census product. It sets no materiality threshold and does not predict the size or direction of any revision.

Use the register at two moments. When a value enters a plan, log its row and decide in advance what size of change would alter that decision. When Census publishes a revision, compare the new vintage with the logged one against that threshold. Limit the routine to categories where a public series actually informs a contract, a buffer or a forecast, and read it alongside your supplier risk assessment so a data change and a supplier change are judged together.

Which buyer records does a Census series not replace?

  • Purchase order lines, receipts and prices for the categories the series is meant to inform.
  • Supplier lead times, capacity statements and delivery performance.
  • Plant and warehouse locations, including stock held outside the domestic merchant wholesale population.
  • The contract clause, model or calculation that uses the public value, with its own effective date.

Each of these records is specific to a buyer and its suppliers; national estimates are not. A national ratio can trigger a review of a category, but it should not feed a safety-stock formula directly, and it cannot confirm a supplier’s inventory, a lead time or a price. If a contract index refers to a revisable series, the clause should name which vintage governs and how later revisions are treated. Where a supplier relationship depends on shared forecasts, agree in writing which release vintage both sides will use and when it will be refreshed.

Why treat a revision calendar as a planning control?

Where does this data come from?

What the numbers are
Seasonally adjusted and not adjusted sales (shipments, for manufacturers), end-of-month inventories and inventories-to-sales ratios for total business, manufacturers, retailers and merchant wholesalers, as printed in the 13 MTIS releases from November 25, 2025 to October 15, 2026; the adjusted series from January 1992 as printed on January 16, 2025, August 14, 2026 and October 15, 2026; and the revision notices on the MTIS page as served on October 26, 2026 and in four 2025 captures, with the Monthly Wholesale Trade page of the same day. Values are in millions of current dollars, not adjusted for price changes. Merchant wholesalers exclude manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, and retail covers employer firms only. None of it describes a named company, product or location.
Source files
How the revision calendar is read
A notice that says a component’s revisions “are reflected in this release” is dated to the latest MTIS release on the day the page was captured; that release is the one an earlier notice had scheduled, which the builder checks. Dates Census gives as scheduled stay scheduled until a later capture shows them in place.
How the page stays current
Census publishes MTIS monthly; the next release, for September 2026, is due November 17, 2026 and is scheduled to carry the wholesale revisions published on October 26, 2026. Each rebuild keeps the releases it replaces, so the check can still date a figure taken from an earlier one.
Download the data

One ZIP holds the 3 CSV files below and a README that lists the sources and the citation.

  • census-mtis-adjusted-history-three-releases.csv
  • census-mtis-releases-aug-2025-aug-2026.csv
  • census-mtis-revision-calendar-2025-2026.csv

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Cite this page

Zinit Research. “Trade Data Revisions: A Procurement Planning Control.” Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales releases and revision notices. https://zinit.com/journal/research/trade-data-revision-planning-control, data retrieved October 26, 2026.

How this page is produced
Zinit Research downloads the source files listed above, keeps the originals, and computes every chart, table and figure in the data sections from them; an automated check rebuilds each number from the files before the page is published. The article text follows the Editorial Policy.

Sources

  1. Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales — U.S. Census Bureau, 2026. Current empirical evidence (official report): MTIS composition, staggered retail and wholesale revision schedule, unchanged M3 history and seasonal models.
  2. Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales, August 2026 — U.S. Census Bureau, 2026. Current empirical evidence (official report): Composition, adjustment basis, component revision status inside one release, preliminary and revised labels.
  3. Monthly Wholesale Trade: Monthly Methodology — U.S. Census Bureau, 2026. Foundational evidence (official report): Preliminary-to-revised timing, benchmarking and seasonal adjustment for wholesale estimates.
  4. Monthly Retail Trade Survey: How the Data Are Collected — U.S. Census Bureau, 2026. Foundational evidence (official report): NAICS restatement and removal of nonemployers from the retail time series.
  5. About the Annual Integrated Economic Survey (AIES) — U.S. Census Bureau, 2026. Foundational evidence (official report): AIES as the annual benchmark for retail, wholesale and manufacturing indicator programs.
  6. Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey: Sample Revision FAQs — U.S. Census Bureau, 2026. Foundational evidence (official report): Sample redesign cadence and Census's statement that prior and new samples are put on a comparable basis where possible.

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