What Recycled-Material Statistics Can Prove in Sourcing

“A national recycling figure starts an evidence request. It cannot answer what is in a supplier’s next lot.”
How much of each metal’s U.S. use came from scrap in 2025, as USGS states it?
Zinit Research collects the recycled share each MCS 2026 chapter states for nine metals and rebuilds it from the chapter’s own table where it can, and the check under the chart tells you whether a supplier’s recycled-content figure counts the same scrap streams as the national one.
Zinit Research · USGS data, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026
USGS’s 2025 recycled shares run from 11% for silver to 70% for lead, measured against 4 different denominators and 3 different definitions of what counts as recycled
The share of each metal’s U.S. consumption or supply that came from scrap in 2025, as the recycling paragraph of its MCS 2026 chapter states it, grouped by the scrap streams the figure counts. The line under each metal names what the share is divided by.
Can a supplier’s recycled-content figure be compared with the national one?
USGS’s 2025 figure for aluminum is 28%: aluminum recovered from old scrap, divided by apparent consumption. USGS’s figure counts old scrap only, while the supplier’s 70% counts new scrap as well, so record the comparison as not applicable. In the same chapter, about 56% of the aluminum recovered from purchased scrap came from new scrap, which is why a combined figure can sit far above the old-scrap share.
USGS’s sentence: “Aluminum recovered from old scrap was equivalent to about 28% of apparent consumption.” The chapter’s salient table rebuilds it as 1,600 ÷ 5,700 = 28.1%.
Records to request: the supplier’s mass balance split into old, new and home scrap, the feedstock records for the period, and the traceability that ties those inputs to the delivered lot.
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, the Recycling paragraph of each metal’s chapter (dated February 2026), checked against the salient statistics in the MCS 2026 data release. Iron and steel are left out because their chapter states a recycling rate, between 80% and 90% over the past decade, and no share of consumption. Chart: Zinit Research. Data and method
What do old, new and home scrap actually describe?
The USGS Recycling—Metals Yearbook distinguishes preconsumer new scrap generated during industrial processing from postconsumer old scrap after a product completes its useful life. That is a classification by where material arises. A cutting from fabrication and a discarded product can both become a recyclable metal stream, but they have different histories. The term says nothing by itself about alloy chemistry, contamination, testing, ownership or the identity of a future batch. For a buyer, “old” is a source category, not a negative quality judgment; “new” is not a universal assurance of grade or availability.
The distinction becomes more granular in ferrous reporting. The 2025 USGS iron and steel scrap chapter describes home scrap as recirculating material from current operations, alongside postconsumer and new manufacturing scrap. It also defines the domestic purchases estimate using home scrap and net receipts from brokers, dealers and other outside sources. A supplier may use similar words in an offer, but that offer needs its own documented definitions: whether rework stayed inside a plant, came from another fabricator, or originated in discarded products. Otherwise two parties can agree on a “recycled” percentage while counting different inputs.
For copper, magnesium, and aluminum, most recovered scrap was new scrap, and the ferrous chapter changed its split between editions
Old, post-consumer scrap made up 17% of the copper USGS reports as recovered from scrap in 2025, 24% of the magnesium and 44% of the aluminum, so a supplier figure that counts manufacturing offcuts can be several times its post-consumer content. The iron and steel chapter shows how unstable the categories are: the 2025 edition split 2024’s recycled scrap into 58% post-consumer, 24% new and 18% home scrap, and the 2026 edition reports 2025 as 89% net receipts, new and old together, and 11% home scrap. The two editions also disagree about 2024 itself, with apparent consumption of iron and steel scrap at 63 million tons in the 2025 edition and 55 in the 2026 edition.
Recovered scrap by stream, share of the total each chapter reports
Source: USGS, MCS 2026 chapters for copper, magnesium metal, aluminum, tin and iron and steel scrap, and the MCS 2025 iron and steel scrap chapter. The value shown is the old-scrap share. For tin the chapter text gives 10,000 tons from old scrap and its salient table 9,000; the chart uses the table. Chart: Zinit Research. Data and method
What is the observation behind the 2026 aluminum figure?
The 2026 aluminum chapter says about 3.6 million tons of aluminum were recovered from purchased scrap in the United States in 2025, with about 56% from new manufacturing scrap and 44% from old discarded-product scrap. The words “about,” “purchased,” the national geography and the 2025 observation year are part of the statistic. The same chapter presents salient statistics in thousand metric tons unless otherwise specified and labels the latest year as an estimate. A buyer should quote the measure with its unit, population, year and estimation status, rather than lift one percentage into a supplier scorecard.
The chapter’s footnote defines one apparent-consumption calculation as primary production plus secondary production from old scrap plus imports, minus exports, with stock adjustments; it excludes traded scrap USGS aluminum methods. That construction is not “all recycled material available for purchase.” It is a commodity-accounting denominator with deliberate inclusions and exclusions. If a sourcing team wants to compare a supplier’s proposed recycled input against public aluminum data, it must first identify which public numerator and denominator it intends to use. It should leave the comparison blank when the supplier does not report on a compatible basis.
The 28% divides by a total that leaves traded scrap out
The chapter’s salient table rebuilds the 2025 figure as 1,600 thousand metric tons recovered from old scrap over apparent consumption of 5,700, or 28.1%, which USGS states as about 28%. Exports of aluminum scrap, 2,200 thousand tons in 2025, exceeded the aluminum recovered from old scrap in every year from 2021 to 2025, and the table says why they sit outside the calculation: “These calculations no longer include exported scrap, because its return to the domestic supply cannot be reliably determined.” So a supplier’s recycled-content claim cannot be lined up against this denominator until the supplier says where its scrap came from and where it went.
U.S. aluminum recovered from scrap and scrap exports, thousand metric tons
- Scrap exports, 2025: 2,200
- Recovered from new scrap, 2025: 2,000
- Recovered from old scrap, 2025: 1,600
Source: USGS, MCS 2026 aluminum chapter and data release, salient statistics 2021–2025 (2025 estimated). Scrap imports, not drawn, were 890 thousand tons in 2025. Chart: Zinit Research. Data and method
Why do commodity totals fail as supplier proof?
The 2026 USGS compilation is organized as commodity chapters with five-year salient statistics, industry context and world production data. It is designed to describe national and global mineral conditions, not the chain of custody of a private purchase order. A figure can be correct within that purpose while being silent on whether a particular mill can meet a chemistry limit, product form, volume, certification request or delivery week. The analytical mistake occurs when a public aggregate is promoted into a claim about an individual counterparty without intervening evidence.
The 2025 ferrous chapter uses million metric tons and reports a separate home-scrap share, while the 2026 aluminum chapter describes purchased scrap and gives a new-versus-old split. Even before considering different years, the material, population and category scheme differ. Summing those shares or comparing them as if both measured a universal “recycled grade” would change the meaning of both sources. Record the calculation as inapplicable rather than normalize it by intuition. A comparison is defensible only after a documented match of material form, unit, period, origin, included scrap streams and processing boundary.
Which records turn a public signal into a buyer decision?
Build an evidence register for one intended material and one sourcing window. The public row names the original source, the exact commodity form and the measured population. The private row names the actual lot or production route. Give every unresolved field an owner and a deadline. This is an authored decision aid for asking proportionate questions; it does not import a regulatory threshold or assert that any supplier meets a standard. A useful first pass can be completed before a request for quotation, then revised as suppliers provide records.
| Public observation to record | Question for this purchase | Supplier or buyer record needed |
|---|---|---|
| Commodity, form, unit and observation year | Is the offered input the same metal and product form? | Item specification, alloy or grade, intended process and lot identity |
| New, old or home scrap definition | Which input streams does the offered percentage count? | Supplier mass-balance method, feedstock records and exclusion rules |
| National recovery or consumption denominator | Can that denominator describe this transaction? | Lot quantity, yield basis, purchased-versus-internal input boundary |
| Published estimate and revisions | What is actually available in the buying window? | Dated capacity or stock statement and delivery commitment |
| Aggregate recycling claim | What can be substantiated about this lot? | Test certificate, sampling method, traceability chain and claim-approval record |
The public column frames inquiry. No row converts national volume into a supplier-specific recycled-content percentage, certification, environmental benefit, price or availability claim.
Start by asking the supplier what enters and leaves the defined process boundary. A feedstock invoice may show that scrap was bought, but it does not prove how much of that material reached a specific output lot. A laboratory certificate may show chemistry for a sample, but it does not by itself establish the origin of every input. A traceability record ties identifiers through processing; a capacity letter addresses timing and quantity. Keep those evidentiary jobs separate. If the requested claim is about recycled content, specify whether it is mass, input share, output share or an allocation method before asking for a percentage.
How should the evidence request be run?
- Define the material and intended use: alloy or grade, form, tolerances, restricted elements, required tests and receiving location. Write the scope before seeing supplier figures.
- Create one public-source row with publication, section, observation year, unit, geography, population, included scrap streams and explicit exclusions. Do not substitute a press summary for the source footnote.
- Request the supplier’s batch or production-route identifier, process boundary, feedstock classification, input weights, yield accounting, sample plan, test results and traceability to the delivered lot. Mark any inaccessible record as unverified.
- Ask separately for a dated supply response: usable quantity, production slot, lead time, permitted substitutions, qualification status and evidence owner. A national recycling total cannot answer this timing question.
- Have technical, quality, procurement and claims owners review the same register. Record the exact assertion each record supports, the conflicting or missing evidence, and the next decision date.
Do not demand every document for every low-risk screening conversation. The register makes the request proportional: first establish whether the supplier is offering the relevant form and process; then deepen the evidence for a qualified material and planned volume. For a broader approach to evaluating a supplier’s controls, see supplier risk assessment methods. For the ongoing record and review cadence after qualification, see supplier relationship management.
What can a buyer say after the check?
A defensible interim statement is narrow: “A public recycling statistic has framed our question; this supplier’s proposed lot remains under specification, traceability and availability review.” The first clause identifies the role of the public source, while the second is a status in the buyer’s own register. Do not replace that status with “certified recycled,” “lower impact,” or “available at this price” until the intended assertion has its own evidence and appropriate review. The national statistic may justify asking a question; it cannot answer a different question by itself.
If a supplier’s records show a different scrap taxonomy from the USGS definition, document the difference instead of forcing a match. The Yearbook’s terminology discussion notes that overlapping labels evolved across industrial practice. The buyer can still assess the offer on its own specifications and chain of evidence. Where material history is uncertain, the most useful decision may be to ask for a traceable alternative route or to leave the recycled-input claim unresolved while evaluating technical suitability separately. That preserves both the procurement decision and the accuracy of the external statement.
What is the usable conclusion?
Where does this data come from?
- What the numbers are
- The recycled share of U.S. consumption or supply that the recycling paragraph of each MCS 2026 chapter states for nine metals in 2025, with the salient-table rows that rebuild it; the old, new and home scrap each chapter reports (and the 2025 edition’s split for iron and steel); and the aluminum salient statistics for 2021 to 2025. Every 2025 value is a USGS estimate. The figures are national commodity flows; none of them describes a supplier, a plant or a lot.
- Source files
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 Data Release, commodity salient statistics (MCS2026_Commodities_Data.csv), U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download from ScienceBase, file as published. SHA-256 582a0aa231ae…
- ScienceBase record for the Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 Data Release, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. response of the ScienceBase catalog API, saved verbatim. SHA-256 2bf0a970277e…
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Aluminum, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 2995b3e9e412…
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Chromium, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 c19e412f65ed…
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 cdfe86c80887…
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Copper, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 c4971f7edfa3…
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Gold, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 c2fef62f665d…
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lead, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 7abd4936108c…
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Magnesium Metal, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 33466d52d827…
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Nickel, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 70aab7644bc8…
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Silver, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 f0dfe4073048…
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Tin, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 659ee022301f…
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Iron and Steel Scrap, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 896ceee87a61…
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025: Iron and Steel Scrap, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 85efc27e5e36…
- 2017 Minerals Yearbook: Recycling—Metals, U.S. Geological Survey. Retrieved October 22, 2026. direct download. SHA-256 8f918976765f…
- Where the files disagree
- Tin: the chapter states 22% and its salient table gives 20.9%; Lead: the chapter states 70% and its salient table gives 66.7%. The chapter’s statement is shown, and the rebuilt share appears in the check, because USGS computes the statement from unrounded data.
- How the page stays current
- USGS publishes the Mineral Commodity Summaries once a year; each new edition replaces these chapters and the data release, and the page is rebuilt from it with the edition named on every figure.
- Download the data
One ZIP holds the 3 CSV files below and a README that lists the sources and the citation.
- usgs-aluminum-scrap-2021-2025.csv
- usgs-old-new-home-scrap.csv
- usgs-recycled-share-by-metal-2025.csv
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Download the data (ZIP, 10 KB)- Related Zinit Research
- Cite this page
Zinit Research. “What Recycled-Material Statistics Can Prove in Sourcing.” Data: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 and 2025, and data release. https://zinit.com/journal/research/recycled-material-statistics-evidence, data retrieved October 22, 2026.
- How this page is produced
- Zinit Research downloads the source files listed above, keeps the originals, and computes every chart, table and figure in the data sections from them; an automated check rebuilds each number from the files before the page is published. The article text follows the Editorial Policy.
Sources
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 — U.S. Geological Survey, 2026. Current empirical evidence (official report): Publication scope and observation-year distinction.
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Aluminum — U.S. Geological Survey, 2026. Current empirical evidence (official report): Aluminum old/new purchased-scrap split, units, and denominator caveat.
- 2017 Minerals Yearbook: Recycling—Metals — Sheryl A. Singerling and Elizabeth S. Sangine, U.S. Geological Survey, 2020. Foundational evidence (official report): Foundational new-versus-old scrap terminology and process boundary.
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025: Iron and Steel Scrap — U.S. Geological Survey, 2025. Historical evidence (official report): Cross-commodity definition contrast, especially home scrap and net receipts.